Tweeted by AlvaApp@1
Tweeted by AlvaApp@1701794106555641856
SpaceX is below IPO price now. My detailed Space X buying plan and how I'd build positions (long response):
"tl;dr: I wouldn’t chase SPCX around $129 or buy simply because it’s below the $135 IPO price.
• Wait for August 4 earnings and the 911.5M-share unlock, roughly 2.5x today’s 4% float.
• Start small around $100–$115 only if the business remains on track.
• Build more aggressively around $85–$100.
• $55–$70 is the generational-buy zone only if Starlink growth, margins, and launch execution remain intact.
• Cap the initial position around 3% of the portfolio, scale in gradually, and never average down on a broken thesis"
1/ Position Structure
Define desired full SPCX position as 100% of the allocation (not 100% of your portfolio).
1/ Tracking: Before Aug. 4, only if you need exposure; 0–10%
2/ First confirmation: Earnings reported and first two unlock sessions absorbed; 20%
3/ Better valuation: $100–$115 with thesis intact;
20–25%
4/ Strong risk/reward: $85–$100 with fundamentals intact; 25–30%
5/ Generational candidate: $55–$70 without a thesis break; Remaining 25–35%
I’d cap SPCX around 3% of the total portfolio initially. I would only raise that after two clean earnings reports. No leverage or short-dated options.
2/ Two Entry Paths
a) Confirmation path
Wait for August 4 earnings and the first lock-up release. Buy a starter only if:
• Revenue/guidance still supports the $38.9B FY2026 consensus
• Gross margin stays around the mid-to-high 40s
EBITDA improves from Q1’s $488M
• Cash burn and capex are explained credibly
• The stock absorbs the new supply, then reclaims and holds $135
You might pay more, but the information risk is lower.
b) Valuation path
Let the unlock force the stock lower, then scale gradually:
• $100–$115: interesting, still expensive
• $85–$100: where I would start buying seriously
• $55–$70: generational-buy territory if the business remains healthy
At $70, the company would still be worth about $915B, roughly 12.5x consensus 2027 sales. This is a price where SpaceX’s growth can plausibly compensate for the risk.
3/ My Rules For Adding
I would only add when the price falls but the thesis does not. I would stop averaging down if:
• 2026 revenue guidance misses the current trajectory badly
• Starlink growth or pricing slows
• Gross margin falls below roughly 40%
• Operating losses and capex rise without matching growth
• Starship delays begin damaging commercial or government milestones
• Unlock selling continues for weeks with no institutional absorption
So say, for a hypothetical $10,000 maximum SPCX allocation, I’d deploy roughly $1,000 after post-earnings confirmation, $2,000–$2,500 near $100–$115, $2,500–$3,000 near $85–$100, and preserve the rest for $55–$70 or later fundamental confirmation.
The core rule is, never use “below IPO” as the buy signal. Use valuation, operating evidence, and absorption of unlocked shares.