Imminent rocket impact on the Moon

A rocket is set to crash into the Moon on August 5th at approximately 6:44 UTC; it is a SpaceX rocket, and the event is one that scientists will be monitoring with great interest. Specifically, it is the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket launched on January 15, 2025, for Firefly Aerospace’s "Blue Ghost" mission—a mission that, incidentally, was one of the very few to successfully land on the Moon.

That launch took place in March 2025, but this rocket stage has remained drifting in space. It is now set to impact the Moon near the Einstein crater at a speed of about 8,700 km/h. The impact will occur on the Moon's western limb—near the boundary between the near side and the far side—in an area illuminated by the Sun at the time. This is unfortunate for amateur astronomers, as it will be very difficult to see the flash caused by the explosion or impact.

A large dust cloud might be kicked up, which could potentially be captured by an amateur telescope, though it will be challenging. This is not the first time such an event has occurred; a similar incident took place in 2022 involving a Chinese rocket stage, which created a crater about 28 meters in diameter. A crater of similar size is expected this time as well. What makes this interesting is that scientists hope the impact will act like a drill, bringing materials from beneath the surface out into the open.

Keep in mind that lunar rocks and dust—collectively known as regolith, which is essentially what we see on the Moon's surface, even with the naked eye—have been baked by solar and cosmic radiation for millions upon millions of years; they are materials altered by that radiation. Beneath them lie other materials—let's say, fresher, purer ones—that are more interesting to analyze and crucial for understanding the subsurface chemical composition. For this reason, NASA plans to use the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to photograph the site both before and after the impact.

This event also highlights the growing problem of space debris in the lunar environment—an issue set to escalate as commercial and government missions to the Moon increase. It is essential to improve space traffic regulations and the design of components like fairings or covers so they do not remain in orbit indefinitely, only to fall randomly onto the lunar surface—and not just because of the risk they might impact future lunar bases, such as the Artemis base or the Chinese one.

The problem is that when an object impacts the Moon, it ejects rocks at high speeds; due to the Moon's low gravity and lack of an atmosphere, these projectiles can travel hundreds of kilometers before hitting the ground. Naturally, this poses an obvious danger, which is why many lunar base projects plan to build within craters, allowing the crater walls to serve as a shield against micrometeoroids—whether caused by a meteorite striking the Moon or by a wayward rocket.

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